Saudi Red Sea Crude Exports Plunge 41% from March Peak Amid Redirection

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports via its Red Sea terminal in Yanbu have experienced a significant decline, falling 41% to approximately 2.39 million barrels per day (bpd) by June. This represents a substantial drop from a peak of 4.07 million bpd recorded in March, according to vessel tracking and cargo data from Wood Mackenzie. The initial surge in Yanbu exports followed the redirection of virtually all Saudi crude shipments through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port at the onset of the Iran war. This strategic shift aimed to bypass potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf. However, despite this near-total concentration of export activity through Yanbu, volumes have consistently decreased since the March high. The decline in exports from Yanbu, a crucial Red Sea outlet, suggests a broader trend in Saudi oil output or demand. While the initial redirection through Yanbu aimed to enhance supply security and manage geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the subsequent fall indicates that other factors are now influencing crude flows. This could include adjustments in Saudi production levels, shifts in global demand, or evolving inventory dynamics among key importing nations. The 41% reduction in Red Sea exports from their peak highlights a significant recalibration in Saudi Arabia's oil distribution strategy or underlying production capacity in recent months.