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MarketsFinancial TimesJul 16, 2026· 1 min read

Netflix Revenue Forecast Disappoints, Shares Slide

Netflix shares fell after the company forecast its weakest quarterly revenue growth in three years, despite strong first-quarter subscriber additions and earnings. The company's decision to stop reporting quarterly subscriber numbers from 2025 further unsettled investors, overshadowing current positive performance.

Netflix, the global streaming leader, experienced a significant share price decline following its latest earnings report, which included revenue growth projections for the current quarter falling short of analyst expectations. The company anticipates its weakest revenue increase in three years, signaling a potential slowdown in its growth trajectory. For the first quarter, Netflix reported revenues of $9.37 billion, a 14.8% year-over-year increase, aligning with analyst consensus. Earnings per share reached $5.28, exceeding estimates. The company also announced strong subscriber additions, with 9.33 million new paid memberships globally in the quarter, substantially above the 4.84 million forecast by LSEG. This brings Netflix's total global paid memberships to 269.6 million. However, the forward-looking guidance overshadowed these positive metrics. Netflix projected second-quarter revenue of $9.49 billion, compared to LSEG analyst consensus of $9.65 billion. The company attributed this conservative outlook partly to currency fluctuations and the phasing out of its paid sharing initiative's immediate impact. Furthermore, Netflix announced it would cease reporting quarterly subscriber numbers and average revenue per member (ARM) starting in 2025, shifting focus to other engagement metrics. This decision to withhold subscriber data, a key performance indicator for many investors, adds to market uncertainty. While the company stated it reflects a more mature business model, it has been interpreted by some as a move to obscure slowing subscriber growth. The market's reaction suggests a focus on the decelerating revenue outlook and the implications of reduced transparency on core growth metrics.

Analyst's Take

The market's sharp reaction to Netflix's revenue guidance and reporting changes, despite subscriber beats, suggests a latent concern about 'growth fatigue' in mature streaming markets. This pivot from subscriber count to other engagement metrics could be a leading indicator for how other established tech giants, currently valued on hyper-growth, might manage market expectations as their expansion rates inevitably normalize. The timing of this data suppression, coinciding with decelerated revenue projections, might be an early signal for broader re-evaluations of high-multiple tech stocks as they transition from growth to value plays.

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Source: Financial Times